Natural Resources Produce Their Own Economic Loop
From traditional commodities like oil and gas to the ongoing addition of renewables, global resources form the foundation of global economic activity. Prosperity and quality of life inexorably hinge on energy availability. Not only does GDP growth require increased energy usage but economic growth then furthers energy consumption again. As natural resources provide virtually all forms of energy, they provide the backbone of the effort to improve global living standards.
In addition to traditional sources of energy, natural resource materials such as metals and fertilizers provide other building blocks for societal growth, from food to shelter to clothing and, in copper’s case, all phases of electrification.
In today’s market increasing geopolitical tensions and advancing technologies like artificial intelligence also layer additional complexity onto an already dynamic natural resources landscape, creating new opportunities in areas such as rare earths and “fast” power generation.
It’s an exciting time for active management, and what follows is our assessment of the structural forces powering the natural resources investment opportunity.
The Population and Prosperity Engine
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global population to grow from roughly 8.3 billion today to nearly 10 billion by mid-century. With that growth comes rising per-capita energy consumption as economies develop. The IEA reports that global energy demand grew 2.2% in 2024—faster than the prior decade’s average—with emerging economies accounting for over 80% of the increase.1 The IEA forecasts global electricity consumption alone to rise by an unprecedented 3,500 terawatt-hours between 2025 and 2027, the equivalent of adding more than a Japan each year (Exhibit 1).
Meeting this demand requires harnessing all forms of energy—not just the cleanest, or the cheapest, or the most reliable, but all three simultaneously. Only a broad, diversified approach to natural resource investment can match the immensity of this challenge (Exhibit 2).
Growing AI Power Needs Fuel Demand for Natural Gas
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a powerful new driver of resource demand. Thunder Said Energy expects data center electricity consumption to more than double by 2030 (Exhibit 3).
This rising data center fuel demand will likely center on natural gas as demand of this magnitude cannot wait for technologies that are still years from commercial scale. While renewables and battery storage should continue to grow rapidly, their intermittency and siting constraints mean they cannot single-handedly fill a 128-gigawatt capacity gap. Consider the math: the existing U.S. gas fleet, running at peak load, delivers an estimated 350 GW. New gas capacity additions expected by 2030 add another 73 GW. Running the existing fleet harder—pushing utilization from roughly 45% to 58%—contributes an incremental 47 GW. Combined, that gets to the approximately 470 GW of total gas capacity required to meet projected 2030 demand.2 As such, the country needs both significant new gas builds and higher utilization of existing assets just to keep pace. The IEA therefore identifies natural gas as the single largest source of additional electricity supply for data centers through the end of the decade, adding over 130 TWh (or 14.8 GW) of generation by 2030.3 Small modular reactors (SMRs), hydrogen, and fusion represent longer-term solutions—each with their own resource demands—but they are not arriving at scale in time to meet the near-term surge.
Electrification: Powerful, but Not a Straight Line
Until roughly a decade ago, petroleum dominated natural resource investment as it was then, and now, the cheapest and most energy-dense fuel source. Then an electrification wave gathered momentum, spurred by sustainability goals, and copper and solar became central to the narrative. But the story has proven more nuanced than early advocates anticipated. Affordability, as always, turned out to be non-negotiable. Natural gas has emerged as an essential bridge fuel that should, in our view, prove to be a more permanent fixture on the energy landscape. Nuclear energy is experiencing a global renaissance, with the IEA projecting record generation through 2027 driven by restarts in Japan, new builds in China, India and potentially the US, and the recovery of French output.4
Just as the shift from petroleum to electrification didn’t happen in a straight line, the next phase demands flexibility, with the ability to move across oil, gas, copper, uranium, and solar materials as conditions evolve.
Copper: The Metal at the Center of Everything
If there is a single commodity that reinforces the need for an active approach to natural resource investing, it’s copper. For decades, demand for copper grew at a steady, consistent pace. Currently, Wood Mackenzie expects total copper demand to surge 24% to 42.7 million metric tons per annum by 2035, driven primarily by global economic development and electrification.5 And while this base case scenario represents a significant leap in demand, potential upside surprises stem from demand shocks.
Copper has received much airtime for its role in the energy expansion and electrification as a metal used in electric cars and grid infrastructure development. In addition, the previously discussed AI-driven explosion in data center construction layers on incremental copper demand that barely registered in forecasts just two years ago. Meanwhile, Europe’s increase in military and defense spending, like that of other countries, relies on copper across electronics, vehicles, and ammunition. And the rapid industrialization of India and Southeast Asia adds traditional demand growth on top of these sources.
Critically, policy developments and technological breakthroughs could trigger additional demand shocks at any point. With supply constrained by permitting delays, underinvestment, and long development timelines, every incremental demand surprise could be that much more impactful for prices and the companies positioned to benefit.
Geopolitics: The X-Factor
Today’s geopolitical tensions—West versus East, Europe versus Russia, the U.S. versus China and the US/Israel vs Iran— highlight the importance of self-sufficiency and strategic alliances. U.S. LNG serves as a prime example. The U.S. became the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023, with North America expected to account for roughly 85% of incremental global supply in 2025.6 LNG supply fragility seems as much a geopolitical story as an energy one, providing European and Asian allies a credible alternative to Russian and Middle Eastern supply. The same could be said for other metals and materials like aluminum and fertilizer.
Elsewhere, the Middle East is diversifying into metals and solar. China dominates EV battery chains and continues to expand solar and wind manufacturing. India has emerged as a clean energy manufacturing hub. The U.S. plans to secure homegrown critical minerals for defense and technology. Each trend creates distinct opportunities for active managers to identify the companies that are well positioned to benefit from these evolving supply chains.
The Benefits of a Flexible Approach
The natural resources universe has never been as dynamic as it is today. Population growth, electrification, AI-driven demand, evolving supply chains, and geopolitical fragmentation create a singularly broad and complex opportunity set. In our view, changes across these dimensions should continue to present opportunities that only a broad, unconstrained approach can fully exploit.
Flexibility is not a feature of this landscape. It is a requirement.
As of April 2026.
Sources
1 Source: IEA, Global Energy Review 2025.
2 Source: BNP Paribas, US gas vs US AI vs US turbines, February 2026.
3 Source: IEA Global LNG Capacity Tracker, March 2026.
4 Source: IEA, The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy, January 2025.
5 Source: Wood Mackenzie, High-wire act: Is soaring copper demand an obstacle to future growth? January 2025.
6 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Energy Today, March 2025
